Ramblings of a disused brain

Monday 14 December 2009

Why I didn't get a pay rise

An astute reader of the news would have found it really difficult to miss the recent 'crisis' that Dubai is undergoing. I am tempted to doc-link the news reports to "'crisis' that Dubai is undergoing", but I'm not sure if I will be able to doc-link 3,333,234 articles on the crisis to that one line, hence I shall leave it to the reader to understand what I'm talking about or invite them to Google the issue.

Having worked in the area, I'm reasonably familiar with the organisation structure of Dubai World. A rough representation of the structure is as follows:




However, according to the Ruler of Dubai, there are two key matters to take away from this:

  1. Dubai World has nothing to do with the Dubai Government and is responsible for it's own mess; and
  2. Dubai World is just a company that happens to be registered in Dubai. Problems it is facing are not representative of any problems that Dubai as a city may or may not be facing.

Be that as it may, what surprised me more than anything was the way the world economy tanked when this news came out and how convenient the timing of the announcement was to Dubai itself. The announcement was made a day before the Dubai capital markets closed for almost a week due to Eid. There would have been no alternative but to announce the problem, it would have to be done sooner or later. Announcing it just before Eid holidays would save the Dubai stock markets from a slaughter.

What caught everyone unawares was the way the world markets reacted to the news. It would be understandable if share prices of companies with genuine exposure to Dubai World were affected, but no, shares plummeted across the board, across the world. While it is common knowledge that we live in an integrated world, such a level of integration is scary! For example, why should share prices of Mannar and Company Public Limited with its registered office in Kaaterikuppam in rural Tamil Nadu crash because Dubai World defaulted on its loans? M'n'C Public Limited (Mannar 'n' Company) has no dealings whatsoever with Dubai or the Arab world, for that matter (except for a visit by its MD to Doobai on a holiday in 2008).

Why should Tonga catching a cold have anything to do with the world economy contracting a deadly case of pneumonia? I'll tell you why, because of the bally press.

In the early days, the press played good Samaritan, reporting things as they are, letting people in one end of the country know what happened at the other end. As communication improved and became faster, more and more was reported. The fourth estate became more and more crowded. As the population of this notorious estate increased exponentially, the struggle for survival began and 'sensationalism' became the order of the day. The more shocking, Earth shattering and deadly the news, the more revenue the press made. Hence a sneeze became the pre-cursor to pneumonia. Press changed their roles from good Samaritans to doomsayers.

This is where one really appreciates the Arab press. While pressmen across the world were busy predicting when Dubai would be wiped off the map, Gulf News carried an article that merely said Dubai World is restructuring its loans to become more profitable. Simple, effective and concise. A bit like the British way of talking. "I'm in a bit of pain!" = "I've been stabbed multiple times in the back and am bleeding to death and will surely die if I am not treated within the next 2 seconds".

Imagine a world where the trigger for the credit crunch, the sub-prime loans was merely a "re-organisation of debt with a view to streamline future profitability". There would be no credit crunch, there would be no recession and I sure as hell would have gotten that pay rise...

6 comments:

  1. In a global economy, closed economies will cause unnecessary jitters to people. Especially if they are linked to Oil. (like Dubai)

    Oil/Energy is pretty much linked to everything.

    ANd moreover, P/E ratios of most developed market is above 20 (greater for tech stocks) and hence it is not valued for their actual worth but the future predictions.

    If you get a chance, read "Intelligent Investor". Common sense and Rational thinking at its best!

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  2. In this case, doesn't it sound like the fourth estate is state controlled? That, in my opinion, is a bigger issue than sensationalism.

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  3. @ Sri: It's true, I suppose most of the world equates the middle east with oil almost universally. Fact is, Dubai has about as much oil as the quantity stored in its oil tanks. Not much in the ground there! Abu Dhabi controls most of the oil reserves of the UAE. Messing around with the minds of investors (investor sentiment) and hence the pricing of stocks seems to be the trend.

    @ Jayashree: Thanks!

    @ Saumya: In the case of Dubai, there is a huge amount of state control. The press is muzzled to a large extent. However, unlike China, there is no force used, the newspapers of the region simply blow the ruler's horn and the people of the region don't bother too much with the international press which is not controlled.

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  5. Somehow this reminds of Saddam's Home Minister. He was on CNN telling the world that Iraq and Saddam's government was in complete control of Baghdad. Behind him, you could see clouds of smoke going up in the centre of the city and US Army trucks everywhere around!! These guys are in a state of denial all the time. Finally this Home Minister surrendered and the US Army said ' We are not even looking for you'!!

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